The quintessential nuancers
Fidel Sendagorta
May 14, 2006
That is how Wesley Clark famously described Europeans during the preparations for the Kosovo war. General Clark was venting his frustration at the way Europeans tend to become fascinated by the complexity of issues to the point of hindering their will for action. At the time I thought that he had a point but this week, after listening to Robert Kagan in Madrid last Monday May the 8th, I reckoned there is still much to say in favour of nuance. Kagan argues that we are heading for a new round of conflict between autocracy and democracy and that the real challenge will not come from islamist terrorism but rather from the two autocratic powers of our age: Russia and China. That would indeed be quite a departure from American foreign policy old and new..
Since 9 -11 and the start of the war against terrorism, Washington has stressed the need to unite with other great powers in the fight against this common threat. What would have changed in the last few years in the behaviour of Russia and China to justify a radically different approach? In Bob Kagan’s view we should stop harbouring illusions about a democratic evolution in any of these two countries. Contrary to conventional wisdom, both can be economically successful without caring for political changes. And what we are seeing lately is Russia and China going hand in hand to support regimes in Sudan, Uzbekistan, Zimbabwe and Burma against western efforts to promote democracy and human rights. The result is the emergence of an informal league of dictators under the protection of Moscow and Beijing.
The problem with this vision is whether it is in our interest, both American and European, to create a dynamics that would make China and Russia our irredeemable enemies. And then, both at the same time! Kagan would point out that we should not split our interests from our values. But was Kissinger being immoral when he devised the normalization of relations with Beijing as a formidable instrument to counterbalance the USSR? (Listen to the neocon chorus: “Kissinger was always immoral!”). Of course we will have conflicting views with Russia and China in a number of issues, particularly in the competitive mood of the current scramble for energy. But we can surely deal with these without falling into the worst strategic blunder conceivable: enemy multiplication as proposed by Robert Kagan.
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