Balkans’ dilemmas
José M. de Areilza
June 17, 2006
Last week I participated in a symposium in Vienna where the future of the Western Balkans (among other hot topics) was discussed. I learnt about the importance of the EU involvement in the region but I disagreed with the prevailing wiew about its future. For many Balkans experts, without “Brussels surveillance”, the reform processes would stop. Moreover, the Union cannot turn its back on these countries and EU membership has to happen after five to ten years of further preparation. Europe has to show morality to compensate for the mistakes of the nineties. Its international credibility is at stake. The seven new Member States from the Balkans would only represent 1% of the population and 1% of GDP of today’s EU. After successful handling by the EU of Montenegro’s independence, Kosovo is the next challenge. This territory has to gain independence soon, without special sovereignty arrangements, although security will still be provided by the Union and the US. Kosovo problems can be solved inside the Union and with the right implementation of independence the risk of a failed State can be avoided.
There are quite a few problems with this discourse that mixes a description of “normal politics” in the region with moral imperatives to excuse what is not normal, but not big enough to deter these experts.
Weak governments, abuse of power by elites, organized crime in the candidate countries are very important issues and should not be minimized. Similarly, the political crisis of the Union is a powerful argument to rethink this program. My impression is that the countries in the Balkans deserve serious European support and not false expectations. A protectorate in Kosovo might be a better solution in the short term than rushing to independence. Enlargement has to be discussed openly, as J. Ignacio Torreblanca suggests, before enlargement negotiations begins.
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