Brussels: We´ve lost Turkey
J. Ignacio Torreblanca
28 de noviembre, 2006
The Finnish Presidency has confirmed that the European Union has lost contact with Turkey, one of the most important satellites in Brussels’ orbit. After two months of frantic efforts to re-connect with the Turkish authorities, the Presidency has given up. Reports as to what has exactly happened are confusing: we were all aware of long-standing radio and communication problems, and we knew that these were acute over the last weeks. Yet, we believed that last-minute solutions would be found.
Some argue that the Turks have decided that the efforts to repair and upgrade their radio systems are unbearable when compared with the little or nothing which Brussels had offered them in return (clearly, settling the Cyprus issue can only came as a part of a global package including accession). On the other hand, those at the Berlaymont control centre have argued that the Turks have been progressively loosening heart over the last months, convinced that the closer they came to Brussels, the stronger the forces of reaction would grow (public opinion in Europe and a good number of governments have made it clear that “no” means “no”).
But the truth is that having elections in Turkey next year and with the European Union in shambles because of the Constitution’s ratification failure, nobody at each side wants so far to get into the space suit and manually repair the connection (as Solana did in the winter of 1999 when Turkey was again on the brink of being lost). That would have been risky, but worth the effort (true, there is still a chance before the European Council meeting, would someone dare?).
The consequences will not be dramatic in the short term: there will be no lightings, thunders or explosions (as you know, there is no sound in space anyway). Instead, Turkey will be progressive fading away in our radars: negotiations will slow down, communications will be reduced to basics, messages will get longer to get through because of the growing distance, societies will grow disinterested and leaders across both sides would continue enjoying their favourite sport: political myopia. Only a few radicals in both sides will be proud, but even them will benefit little from this mistake: the European Constitution will not stand better chances of ratification by letting Turkey fade away and life will be harder for Turkish citizens.
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Here is another way of looking at this issue: instead of debating Turkey at the European level, the discussion has become highjacked by national debates on identity, some very complicated and hard to manage rationally. I nevertheless agree with the Commission decision to propose consequences to the December 11 European Council, in order to respond to Turkey’s stance on Cyprus. It is taking EU rules on enlargement seriously.
Comment by Jose — December 2, 2006 @ 10:22 am
Why should Turkey be rewarded for failing to live up to agreements? The EU should take a tought stance on Turkey – which means just a reasonable stance that the Turks will squeal is too tough.
There is no chance in hell that the Turks will stop trying to get into the EU. The Turks are blackmailing the EU to go soft on them.
Cyprus has to be resolved to benefit the Cypriots. Greek Cypriots make up and have always made up 80% of the population but their opinion (as NOT reflected in that ludicrous Annan Plan) apparently does not count.
Turkey has made Cyprus it’s national cause to keep the populace’s mind off the ineptitude of successive Turkish Governments, and the Army which runs the Turkish state.
Is Turkey prepared to give human rights to its 20 million Kurds?
What role would Turkey play in the EU? Is Europe prepared for a massive impulse of millions of Muslims looking for work and secession when they become the majority in certain areas? You are naive if you think this will not happen. THe rights given to Turks/moslems in Europe are not those given to Christians in Turkey. It never will be no matter how many laws are put onto paper.
These things need thinking about. Naivete needs checking.
Comment by Lokki — January 5, 2007 @ 7:14 am
Perhaps I was a little exhuberant before. Turkey will probably join the EU one day, Israel may join the EU one day too as A. Leiberman said the other day.
However, for Turkey will have to turn inside out. What the Turks fail to realise is that it’ll be for the betterment of their country to do so.
Comment by Lokki — January 5, 2007 @ 12:37 pm
If the EU cannot deliver on the commitments it made to the Turkish Cypriots in 2004 regarding direct trade and direct flights then it has issues that go to the core of its viability, rather than an issue with Turkey.
Afterall, Turkey aside, how did the EU do with their recent energy deal with Russia? Poland vetoed it. Once again, the entire EU will was hijacked by one member state using EU leverage to pursue its own national interest.
The fact that Cyprus, a country subject to a dispute that is exactly the sort of thing the EU was meant to get away from, is even in the EU is the result of yet another veto threat (by Greece).
The EU has issues and although they sometimes manifest through the process with Turkey, they have nothing to do with Turkey. 27 countries each with their own national interests and foreign policies and each with a power of veto. This sounds like a complete political non-flyer.
The consitution is meant to magically fix everything – but which mug is going to give up their veto over their own destiny?
Comment by Lee — January 8, 2007 @ 6:22 pm