Square Root or Death!
José M. de Areilza
June 14, 2007
I had another good title for this post, “Take the double majority and run”, but the one I have finally chosen was suggested by a friend this afternoon and illustrates better the political psico-drama going on. A week before the European Council of June 21-22 takes place, the concept of European democracy boils down to old fashioned bargaining bewteen national governments, mostly about allocation of power in the EU institutions, without invoking any principles or neutral arguments. This secret negotiatioin has been going on or the last five months, thanks to Merkel and Sarkozy’s sherpas, those unsung heroes.
So much for the Convention and the European constitutional debate, launched in 2002, whose rationale was to transcend the elitism of EU politics. Paris and Berlin are united now to avoid a complicated second constitutional debate and especially those unfashionable and unpredictable referenda. They want a “Simplified Treaty”, basically encapsulating the institutional rules of the EU Constitution that favor them plus the UK and Italy, and if possible some more stuff of part I of that text, perhaps to disguise their naked grab of power. Everything has to be done quickly, as if a previous consensus among all 27 Member States existed and the constitutional project never failed. The best outcome would be to have a detailed “road map” enshrined in the European Council Conclusions so the Intergovermental Conference in the next semester under the Portuguese Presidency would have very little work to do.
Well, not so fast. Warsaw’s government still wants to have a good fight about the new allocation of power and double majority rule desired by the Franco-German leaders, quite different from the existing Treaty of Nice rules, that favor Poland and Spain (where is Spain in this debate?). Jaroslaw Kaczynski is clearly not my favorite politician in Europe, but he is arguing that power should be allocated according to the square root of number of inhabitants per country, an interesting proposal for the rational thinker. Of course, he is also threatening to veto the whole thing (Square Root of Death!), or may be the guy with the veto is actually his brother. Prague’s goverment sympathizes with this Polish attitude. London’s government is piling up in the last minute new “red lines” that were not there in June 2004, less majority voting, no legal personality for the EU, no Minister of Foreign Affairs with that name…My impression is that the Intergovernmental Conference will finally have a lot of negotiation to do.
One thing is clear: the period of pause and reflection that followed the Frend and Dutch referenda in 2005 has been wasted and our politicians have learnt nothing. My pragmatic side understands the necessity at some point to reform and improve the Treaty of Nice. But why do it now? Why go back to the polemic EU Constitution text and if you are a big country choose & pick one’s favorite reforms, shielded by the process of diplomatic bargaining? The European Parliament position is equally unfounded. The Baron-Brok report approved about the rescue of the EU Constitution essentialy says that it is OK to give a different formal aspect to the Constitutional Treaty, but that its basic elements should be preserved. Reasonings like this make me stop from wondering why voters turn out in EP elections is increasingly low.
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Me sorprende tu comentario por muchas razones.
Yo entiendo o percibo, -puedo equivocarme- que muchos paises se han movido desde los “noes” francés y holandés para, de alguna forma y cada uno a su manera, salir de la crisis y recuperar lo más posible del contenido del proyecto constitucional. Se han hecho estudios, análisis, reuniones …
Sin embargo, todos eramos conscientes que nada podría moverse hasta pasadas las elecciones francesas. Y así ha sido. Lo que antes aparecía en letra pequeña, ahora ocupa portadas. Por eso da la sensación de que, ahora sí, la carrera se ha iniciado y todos corren para llegar un acuerdo lo antes posible.
Me sorprende enormemente tu escepticismo final: yo prefiero salvar lo más posible del proyecto existente que iniciar una nueva y larga CIG que llevará varios años.
Pero me sorprende, sobre todo, tu pregunta ¿Donde está España en este debate?
España fue el primer pais en ratificar el proyecto por referedumn. España, junto a Luxemburgo, consiguió reunir a 22 paises europeos en Madrid para relanzar el texto constitucional en Enero de este año. Sarkozy estuvo en España el 31 de mayo para hablar de su propuesta con nuestro país que considera un interlocutor esencial. España estuvo el mismo día, el 15 de Junio, en Alemania con Merkel -para fijar la hoja de ruta- y en Polonia -para tratar de convencer a los gemelos que en Europea no se pueden plantear las cosas como “todo o nada”-. España, junto a Francia, presento ayer a los Ministros de Exteriores de los 25 una iniciativa, una propuesta para sacar a Europa de la crisis, manteniendo lo máximo del proyecto. España había previamente pactado con Italia su apoyo a este proyecto franco-español.
¿De verdad dudas de donde está España en este debate?
Yo creo que está bien claro: en su mismo centro de liderazgo, junto a Alemania (Merkel) y Sarkozy (Francia).
Un abrazo,
María
Comment by Maria Lopez-Contreras — June 18, 2007 @ 9:52 pm