Europe should waste no time and speak to Obama
Pawel Swieboda and Maria Sadowska
January 20, 2009
The Europeans have enormous expectations when it comes to the Obama presidency. But they have been disappointed by Washington so many times before that they are like the doubting Thomas from the Bible – they want to see the good will first before they start believing. This may be understandable and legitimate but will not be not be enough. The United States under the Obama presidency will go to a great length to build coalitions and the Europeans will be on top of the list. Yet no-one should expect the Obama team to disentangle the complexity of the EU system of governance. The EU should know better, pull itself together for talks with the Americans and come up with useful ideas to shape Obama’s thinking at an early stage.
Let us imagine the EU is a pragmatic organization whose leaders are honest, humble and straight-forward kind of folks. What would they do now? They would send a delegation to Washington D.C. within days rather than wait for shaking Obama’s hand one-by-one. Who should be in it? The Czech presidency is a must as is the Commission and the High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy. Britain and France are pivotal as the two most serious European security actors. Germany is the biggest economy and must come. Denmark should be there as it is in charge of the international climate negotiations. The end of delegation with seven people in total. More than one but less than thirty with all the member states and institutions on board. For talks with the United States, Europe should test and launch a new Edition 3+3+n to maximize on delivery potential.
An imperial setting of the inauguration of the 44th President seems to mirror the scale of challenges he will have to face. So far the Europeans are on board. But to what extent, no one knows. Speaking to Mr. Change is not a done deal. But 2009 will set the course for transatlantic relations and decide on their future success or failure. The upcoming twelve months will be challenging for politics, economy and society. General elections will be held in India and Germany, there will be elections to the European Parliament whereas Indonesia, Iran, Afghanistan and South Africa will elect their presidents. There is a whole set of important meetings ahead of us with the G20 gathering in London and the NATO summit in April marking themselves out.
The formula and the calendar are not the end of the story. The Europeans must have ideas on offer. This assumes that they have them in the first place which is more tricky. The EU is not a state and is often more than happy to use it as an alibi for inaction. The new strategy should focus on a careful definition and maximization of competitive advantages of the EU. Let us imagine the EU leaders miraculously decide to agree on a short list of proposals to leave behind in the Oval Office. What should that be?
We all know what the world’s burning issues are. A selection has to be made for the EU’s contribution to be of real value in the initial stage of the Obama presidency and inspire trust in the unique wisdom of the Europeans. The issue of the day will be how to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The window of opportunity for the two-state solution is still there but the clock is ticking. On some of the critical issues like the return of refugees, the Palestinians will have to bite the bullet while on the status of Jerusalem, the Israelis will. Otherwise, no lasting solution can be agreed. Presence on the ground will be essential to guarantee that a potential peace plan holds. The Europeans should offer their contribution and back up the US diplomatic effort.
Then, there is the seemingly unwinnable war in Afghanistan. The US opts for another surge, the EU prefers to see a new political strategy first. The conflict requires an approach based on looking beyond as well as looking within. Foreign presence can only be scaled do down if Taliban gives up its links with Al-Kaida. Regional players need to be engaged to deal with the unmanageable area at the Afghan – Pakistani border.
Vowing for the renewal in transatlantic relations, the EU leaders should work out a feasible solution to redraw the rules of global economy and restore confidence in global finance. Summoning G20 instead of G8 heralds a recognition of a global shift towards the East. The formula agreed in April should be about both – a regulatory overhaul and, crucially, a declaration of intent on pressing ahead with the Doha liberalisation round to maximise stimulus to global growth and minimise flashes of protectionism.
Recent days have proven that the EU has a problem handling Russia. Obama is likely to test whether a constructive dialogue with Russia is possible on a range of international issues, including a replacement for START I which runs out in December. Europe should support these efforts but draw its lessons from the Russian unpredictability that has characterized the country’s pursuit of bare national interest in the last few months. One of the ways is to deliver on projects which are in the interest of the West itself – from reenergizing efforts to build an energy hub in the Caspian area to enhancing partnership with Ukraine, Georgia and other Eastern neighbours.
The outlines of a deal on climate change have to be agreed within months if the Copenhagen conference in December is to succeed. Obama has already pledged to reduce US emissions to 80 percent of 1990 levels by 2050. He also promised to “engage vigorously” in the international negotiations leading up to Copenhagen. An EU-US agreement to work together towards a positive outcome of the post-Kyoto negotiation would put an insurmountable pressure on the developed and developing countries alike to edge towards a compromise.
There is a host of other issues, from the Doha trade round and the new NATO strategic concept to the Pakistani conundrum and the non-proliferation question. A hot line must be agreed between the United States and Europe to consult closely and fuel the flame of political will. It is not without a reason that the turmoil in the world has come to a temporary halt to celebrate Obama’s inauguration, from the solving of the Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute to the ceasefire in the Middle East. This happy state of affairs will not last but it demonstrates that the economically multipolar world continues to gravitate around the United States as its sole political heavy-weight. Hillary Clinton wants the US to be a smart power. The EU is smart but clumsy. The Obama moment is its best chance for change.
* Pawel Swieboda is president and Maria Sadowska is head of “Europe in the world” programme in demosEUROPA – Centre for European Strategy.
________________________________
No Comments »
No comments yet.
RSS feed for comments on this post. | TrackBack URI | bookmark on del.icio.us.
Leave a comment
Advertencia de Protección de Datos:
Los datos personales capturados con ocasión de la utilización del formulario de comentarios (nombre/apodo, dirección de correo electrónico, sitio web y dirección IP), serán incluidos en un fichero del propietario del sitio web y se publicarán (excepto su dirección de correo electrónico y su dirección IP) en esta página con la finalidad de permitir opinar públicamente al lector, así como para en su caso contestar al comentario o consultas que formule. Podrá ejercitar sus derechos de acceso, de rectificación, de cancelación y de oposición en lo referido a dichos datos personales dirigiendo un correo electrónico a la dirección: datos.personales@blogeuropa.eu.
----
Privacy notice:
Please be informed that by using the comments form, your personal data (name/nickname, e-mail address, website and IP address), will be included in a file owned by the website proprietor and published along your comment (except for your e-mail and IP addresses), in order for the reader to publicly comment, as well as -should that be the case-, to respond to any comment or query that readers may have made. You will be able to exercise your rights to access, rectify, cancel and oppose such personal data by sending an e-mail to the following address: datos.personales@blogeuropa.eu.